The drop in gasoline prices due to the reduction of several taxes should have a direct impact on the country's official inflation in the coming months.
The general expectation is that there will be deflation in the Consumer prices Wide of July.
Estimates vary between a negative of 0.6% and 0.7%, and that the index of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics has a variation close to zero in the month of August.
Fuels account for around 7% of the IPCA, the official inflation indicator, according to IBGE data.
Economists estimate that the drop in the price of gasoline paid by distributors, announced by Petrobras this week, reduced the average sale price of the gasoline in the distributors it can reach 2% for the drivers in the gas stations.
Dealers had already been lowering the price at pumps in most states, due to the reduction in the tax on the circulation of goods and services on fuel.
According to the projection of the chief economist at Banco Original, Marco Caruso, the IPCA in July should fall by 0.60% and, in August, rise by 0.04%.
“This decision by Petrobras will have a greater impact in August. It represents a drop of 4.93% in refineries and, assuming a transfer of 50%, we are talking about a drop of approximately 2.5% in inflation for gasoline alone”, stated Marco Caruso.
The chief economist at Ativa Investimentos, Étore Sanchez, pointed out that, this month, the impact of the drop in fuel prices on the IPCA will still not be so significant, because the last reduction made by Petrobras will not have reached the tip yet, that is, to the final consumer.
“There is still a lag in the transmission of falling prices. The political component is also very uncertain, considering that we had an expectation of a rise in the price of gasoline”, said Étore Sanchez.
The relief in the international price of a barrel of oil, which has returned to below US$ 100 dollars in recent days, also made possible the deflation expected for this month's IPCA.
For Nomad's head of Investments, Caio Fasanella, it is still not possible to price the size of the impact of this reduction on annualized inflation, due to market conditions.
“There is still no consensus among economists, because there may be changes depending on other factors, such as the exchange rate, which can cause inflationary pressure”, explained Caio Fasanella.
Sources: correiobraziliense.com.br
