The real enjoyed a new day of appreciation against the dollar, especially in the afternoon of business.
Leaving the opening at BRL 5.1574, it reached a high of BRL 5.1649, but the price dropped to BRL 5.0739 (-1.63%) at the close of the day, in another session marked by volatility. In the week, the accumulated drop was 1.80%.
Today, too, the local exchange market operated partially detached from the movement of the dollar, strengthening against strong currencies.
However, there was room for bullish currencies in most emerging currency pairs. real, with the exception of the ruble and the Argentine peso.
For Bruno Mori, economist and financial planner at Planor, the flow was strong this Friday. But not only from foreigners who are seeing a good differential to enter the country, but from domestic funds, which have zeroed out their positions in exchange to be positioned in interest rates.
“I have news of managers clearing positions in currencies, I myself did that at the beginning of the month”, says Mori.
For foreigners, he says, it is also something attractive, since there is a perception that the Federal Reserve could ease the pace of US interest rate hikes, after two inflation data turned out to be weaker than expected.
Here in Brazil, too, the expectation is that the Central Bank, if it has not concluded, is very close to ending the bullish cycle.
Investors are now waiting for the minutes of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week to get more clarity on the Fed's next steps.
Mori also points out that, according to the Central Bank's Focus survey, at the end of 2023, the dollar exchange rate is R$5.20 and the Selic rate is 11%.
“Despite the fiscal and political risk that Brazil has, it seems to be advantageous for foreign capital. Brazil, among the emerging countries, has some advantages, such as the Central Bank that provides liquidity, for example. Thus, foreigners are comfortable being long in reais, whether in interest or stock exchange positions”.
“Given the fiscal risk, which is back on the radar, it seems to me that a quotation around R$5.00 calls for adjustments”, says Mori.
Sources: investing.com
